Q1 2019 Industry Research

Same-Store Sales Discussion

Restaurant industry same-store sales (“SSS”) increased for the sixth straight quarter in Q1 2019 following six consecutive quarters of SSS declines. Of the 59 companies we follow, 37, or 71%, generated SSS growth.

As shown in the figure below, long-term performance, measured over 3-, 5- and 10-year periods, has been most consistent in QSR. Fast casual provided the most growth over the past 10 years; however, the segment was negative over the past three years, as was the family dining segment. Fine dining led the industry with 1.7% growth in Q1 2019, extending its positive streak to three consecutive quarters.

QSR:  The QSR segment extended its streak of positive year-over-year (“YOY”) SSS growth to eight consecutive quarters with a 0.8% increase. Mexican concepts led the segment for the 12th straight quarter with 2.0% growth, largely due to another strong quarter from Taco Bell (+4.0%). Chicken concepts lagged the segment with a 0.1% decline, driven by a 2.6% decrease for Pollo Tropical, partially offset by 2.0% growth for KFC, its 12th consecutive quarter of growth. Domino’s (+3.9%) delivered another strong quarter in Q1, but its growth is showing signs of slowing. The sandwich (+1.6%) and coffee/snack (+0.8%) segments posted modest growth led by industry leaders McDonald’s (+4.5%) and Starbucks (+4.0%), respectively.

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